What does history tell us about the impact of pandemics on the housing market?
Zillow Research took a deep dive into the economic effects of previous global pandemics to offer some perspective on what those effects might be for the current one.
Key findings of the report:
- During the 1918 influenza and the 2003 SARS pandemics, economic activity fell sharply, but snapped back quickly once the pandemic was over.
- The rapid fall and rebound associated with those pandemics differs from a standard recession in which economic activity falls for six to 18 months, and then recovers more slowly.
- During the 2003 SARS pandemic, home prices in Hong Kong did not fall significantly, but transaction volume did.
- Precisely forecasting the economic effects of COVID-19 is complicated by the uncertainty around the virus’ spread, the policies adopted to control it and how those two things might interact with pre-existing recession risks that existed at the start of the year.